Download A simulation approach to the study of human fertility by Gigi Santow (auth.) PDF

By Gigi Santow (auth.)

This e-book is an amended and a little bit shorter model of my doctoral thesis which I submitted to the Australian nationwide college in 1976, and for that reason edited on the Netherlands Interuniversity Demographic Institute in 1977. The paintings falls certainly into components. the 1st is anxious with the development and validation of a version, and the second one with its software as an experimental instrument. within the first half, comprising Chapters One to 4, an exam of ancient and modern versions of inhabitants progress resulted in the choice to check adjustments in fertility by way of a organic micro simulation version. the explanations helping the alternative of one of these version have been mentioned, and a seek of the literature produced the knowledge for use as version enter. the consequences of various the enter have been tested after which the version output was once proven opposed to Hutterite info. the most emphasis of the second one a part of the paintings, comprising Chapters 5 to Seven, was once the checking out of the impact at the fertility of 1 society of adaptations within the length of the submit partum interval of non-susceptibility to perception, and within the point of youngster and baby mortality. extra simulations have been played to find the impression on fertility of using birth control to achieve assorted kin sizes, either with and with no the extra influence of little one and baby mortality.

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Example text

1 is the flow chart 3 of such a model. The model derived from this flow chart is the basic model of this work. Offshoots are naturally produced as different problems are examined, but their method of construction follows naturally from that of this first model. 2. See Pyke (1962) and also Potter (1972). 3. For flow chart conventions used, see McCracken (1972), p. 33ff. THE CHOICE OF A MODEL 25 IS SHE IS YES SHE THE LAST STERILE2 WOMA.. E? IS NO SHE TERlLE? NO IS DETERMINE ABORTION INFECUNDABLE PERIOD IS YES TUlLE?

O. report which studied food and health found that 'the incidence of abortions, miscarriages and stillbirths appears to be unduly high in poorly-fed communities' (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, 1962, p. 446) but was uncertain how important was the role played by malnutrition. Were precise data available, this would be another way in which one could characterise a badly nourished population. 16 The properties of a sound and valid model have been described, as have the necessary qualifications of its input data.

2. Foetal Loss The World Health Organisation (1970) defines foetal death as 'death prior to the complete expUlsion or extraction from its mother of a product of conception, irrespective of the duration of pregnancy' (p. 5). Foetal deaths are divided into three categories: early foetal deaths at less than 20 completed weeks of gestation, intermediate foetal deaths at 20 but less than 28 weeks, and late foetal deaths at 28 weeks or more (p. 6). This last group is comprised of all stillbirths. The term 'abortion' denotes the termination of a pregnancy before the foetus has become 'capable of 8.

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