By Karen S Mistry
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A worker in manufacturing today earns an average wage of $39,688 (including overtime). Back in 1970, that same worker would have earned a wage of only $6,685. But don’t feel sorry for that worker. The cost of living was so much lower in 1970 that this wage was equivalent to $37,576 in today’s dollars. So the next time that an older person brags about how little he or she made as a young worker, be skeptical. It’s real wages, not nominal wages, that matter. Real wages do increase over time, at least in the long run.
In fact, Social Security income is indexed to inflation, so it rises with the cost of living. 2. Wealth accumulated prior to retirement provides a second source of retirement spending. Some retirees may also be able to rely on traditional pensions, but let’s focus on retirees who have only their own savings to fall back on (including savings within 401(k) and other defined contribution plans). Social Security payments are supplemented by drawing on accumulated savings. But how much can you spend out of savings?
Shiller makes two changes to conventional P/E measures. First, he measures the past 10 years’ earnings in order to iron out sharp cyclical changes in earnings. Second, he adjusts both prices and earnings by inflation (necessary because 10 years of earnings are being measured). 4. Notice how overvalued the market looks in the late 1990s. Two sharp corrections in 2000–2002 and 2007– 2009 have brought the P/E ratio down to about 22 in early 2013. 8), the market appears to be at least 10 percent overvalued.